Russia policy unclear course in the ukraine conflict – federal government isolates germany from its partners
Who will oppose the russian march?
Washington, paris, london, madrid, rome, madrid the french president expresses understanding. the chancellor’s entry into government comes at a "very difficult time for everyone," emmanuel macron said tuesday evening at the chancellor’s office in berlin.
next to macron stands olaf scholz, the host, almost expressionless, as always. "whoever orders guidance, gets it" – that is the chancellor’s announcement, and he claims to speak "clear words".
But now, with war looming in europe and world public opinion wanting to know what the german attitude is and what sanctions berlin will support should putin actually give the order to invade ukraine, scholz says phrases like "we will act wisely in such an eventuality, which we hope we will not experience."and: "at the same time we have to consider what consequences this has for ourselves."
Scholz remains vague, keeps options open – depending on how badly the German economy could be affected by sanctions or counter-reactions from moscow. To maintain the balance of interests in his coalition, this may be enough.
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abroad, berlin’s stance is increasingly met with alienation. What’s more, doubts are growing among allies about the federal government’s foreign policy resolve, even its reliability.
A halt to the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline? Let’s see, the German energy supply must not be endangered in any case.
Disconnecting Russia from the swift international payment system? Better not, especially german companies would also be affected.
Supply of defensive weapons? By no means. At most, Germany will supply 5,000 soldiers’ helmets, as German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) announced on Wednesday.
Germany’s indecisiveness is criticized
At best contradictory signals, at worst pure defensiveness – this is the picture berlin is giving in this most difficult foreign policy situation since the cuban missile crisis. The rest of europe and the u.S. are increasingly perplexed and irritated by berlin’s actions.
The chancellor takes office at a difficult time.
In Eastern Europe in particular, even government representatives are now expressing themselves in a surprisingly undiplomatic manner. polish prime minister mateusz morawiecki is concerned not only about the situation in ukraine per se, but above all about "the reactions of our neighbors in germany in the face of the threat from russia".
latvian defense minister artis pabriks criticized german policy toward russia as "in no way meeting" nato and european union requirements. And ukrainian foreign minister dmytro kuleba, who now stressed that his country would not allow "any major power to impose any concessions on ukraine," never made a secret of what he thought of nord stream 2: nothing.
British show irritation
Above all, the british are also openly expressing their displeasure. Berlin and paris have so far watered down the nato response, conservative MP karl mccartney said this week in a ukraine debate in the house of commons.
foreign affairs committee chairman tom tugendhat urged foreign minister liz truss to talk to germany about arms deliveries to kiev. In her reply, truss seemed to agree with him: "all our allies must be more committed. Britain supplies defensive weapons, supports ukraine economically, and trains armed forces. All our allies must stand behind it."
Prime minister boris johnson, however, also reminded delegates that unlike the united kingdom, germany is dependent on russian gas supplies. "they are in a different situation than we are. Their sacrifice may be very great, but we must hope for the sake of peace that they are willing to make that sacrifice," the head of government said. Scholz had made it very clear to him that nord stream 2 would not go into operation in the event of a russian invasion.
France is holding back open criticism, but is skeptical
In France, too, there is great concern that berlin is being too soft on moscow, not least because of energy policy interests. The German-Russian nord stream 2 gas pipeline is viewed with particular criticism. already a year ago, after the assassination of russian opposition member alexei nawalny, french europe minister clement beaune had said: "france has always had the greatest doubts about this project." finance minister bruno le maire spoke of not wanting to be "in the hands of vladimir putin".
In these days, however, paris avoids open criticism. For even more than Berlin’s reticence, the French are bothered by the fact that Russia and the U.S. could decide on war and peace over the heads of Europeans at the EU’s border. Macron sees the ukraine conflict as further proof of his demand for european sovereignty – and for an effective crisis policy, he needs the german partners at his side.
the elysee palace seeks understanding in background talks. A senior adviser to macron said it was clear there would have to be a "massive response" if russia attacked ukraine. But it is not yet time to talk about the details of a catalog of sanctions and the role of nord stream 2, he says.
Despite all the irritation – now is "simply not the time for berlin and paris to argue," analyzes eric-andre martin, head of the center for Franco-German studies at the paris thinktank ifri. By reviving the normandy format, macron hopes for "a dynamic with which europeans can exert influence".
U.S. considers moving troops to europe at short notice
Nevertheless, the attitude of the new federal government and Chancellor scholz toward russia is seen as a test of the ally’s reliability. "france expects germany to be prepared to impose sanctions and would also accept to sacrifice nord stream 2 in the process," says martin. Recent signals from berlin indicated this was the case – "but it was a painful process".
Germany’s renunciation of arms deliveries to ukraine continues to cause some concern in paris, martin says. This raises questions about how berlin will react to future geopolitical crises involving partner countries. According to information from elysee circles, France can imagine supporting Ukraine with military equipment if a corresponding request is received from Kiev.
spain’s prime minister pedro sanchez had also offered military support and immediately sent a frigate to the black sea. Criticism of germany from the official side, however, is not to be heard in madrid. "there may be differences in nuance due to a variety of reasons: historical, geographic, or all kinds of ties to russia," says the spanish foreign ministry. Italy is similarly reticent. Probably also because a spicy telephone conference is said to have taken place on this Wednesday. Participants: putin and the heads of italy’s leading corporations. Although diplomats want the meeting to be understood as a "private initiative," it comes at an inopportune time for the government in rome.
u.s. doubts berlin’s reliability
President joe biden holds off on open criticism of federal government. But patience is wearing thin – especially in the U.S. Congress, and clear signals are also coming from the think tanks that are so influential in washington. "the biden administration has made good relations with berlin a priority," says john herbst, the former u.s. ambassador to ukraine who now heads the thinktank atlantic council’s eurasia center. "but neither merkel nor scholz have given biden anything in return," he notes. Resentment is growing not only among republicans in Congress, but also among democrats. "we can live with germany holding back on arms deliveries. But the fact that germany wants to prevent others from doing so is a disgrace," says herbst.
"there is a kind of fatigue and perplexity on the U.S. side," says constanze stelzenmuller of the brookings thinktank in washington as well. What is happening in Germany at the moment "looks incredibly provincial, narrow-minded and as if they haven’t heard the shot".
By announcing that it would half-finance a field hospital, germany has probably rather disgraced itself: "If anyone thought that was a big gesture, they would feel very alone here in washington," says stelzenmuller.
Jeff schott of the petersen institute in washington warns: "nord stream 2 would also strengthen the dominant position of gazprom, russia’s monopoly exporter, in the european market and increase the risk of future market manipulation. The situation in ukraine underlines the urgency of action on climate, energy security and foreign policy grounds."
The devastating echo from the U.S. should deeply worry the ampel coalition, says benjamin L. Schmitt, eastern europe expert at harvard university: "in berlin, there should be serious concern that this ambiguous policy will lead to long-term image damage."
rachel rizzo of the atlantic council has a similar view: when the biden administration came into office, it had to work to repair the transatlantic relationship. "now it seems to be the other way around: it’s the germans who have to worry about repair work."
Delicate situation in berlin
Germany is therefore in a delicate position in terms of foreign policy. If the impression is that faraway america is doing more to secure peace in europe than the continent’s number one economic power, germany should rethink its foreign policy.
The call of the ukraine for support is ignored in berlin.
"germany must not appear as an insecure canton in this major crisis. There’s too much at stake for us," says former top diplomat peter wittig. "the federal government must do everything to counter this perception."the russian troop deployment threatens not only ukraine, but the european peace order as a whole. "the attempt to divide the world into spheres of influence of the great powers goes to the heart of european interests," said wittig, who was german ambassador to washington and london. Therefore, he said, it was right to revive the normandy format now and to leave the talks with russia "not just to the americans".
Whether germany should supply weapons – including defensive ones – to ukraine requires complex consideration. there are good reasons to be cautious here, says wittig. "but it is problematic to base our rejection on our own past. No one abroad believes this, it gives the impression that we are shirking our responsibility."
By moritz koch, gregor waschinski, carsten volkery, jens munchrath, katharina kort, christian wermke and sandra louven.
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comment the federal government can have no interest in a russian gas pipe dividing the west
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Unfortunately, the SPD and the Greens are trapped in an ideolgy that makes it impossible for our democracy to flexibly defend itself and does not even allow the support of politically friendly countries.
What can you expect from parties that do not yet allow the bw to acquire drones?.
Where is the dissuasion of the west ? The point now is not to make german and french politicians feel good, but to show russia its limits.
actions like sending a few helmets to the ally are infantile and only strengthen putin in his assumption that nothing dangerous for him will surely follow there.
Oh what a mistake – the authors were not above but below: by moritz koch, gregor waschinski, carsten volkery, jens munchrath, katharina kort, christian wermke and sandra louven.
HB, HB, HB – oh what a shame – the HB is TOO FAKE TO NAME THE AUTHOR
To the content:
prime minister boris johnson rhetorically recognizes the sacrifice germany must make "nord stream 2" an, he cries crocodile tears, because johnson has led Great Britain out of the EU, because the EU was too expensive for him with a few billion euro, which Great Britain was allowed to pay in. Britain has only paid half since thatcher’s "I want my money back".
Mr. cedric hinsch
"provincial, narrow-minded and as if one had not heard the shot" SHOOTING IS WARRETORICS!
And so the whole article bristles with WAR Rhetoric – and no author wants it to be so!
Hats off to mr. scholz and mrs. baerbock, who stand in the way of the WAR-RHETORICS.
all world supplies ukraine with weapons, so ukraine can invade eastern ukraine and slaughter people! Eastern ukraine is majority russian. there is a war provoked by ukraine – similar to the maidan protests provoking the coup against the government – just also with weapons – undemocratic.
We have recognized that poland is not particularly democratic, but is dutifully "supported" by america, military as well as economic and also the EU is absolutely generous.
Ukraine is corrupt.
The nato eastward expansion a breach of the promise also of the USA and Great Britain NOT to expand nato against the east. They were very friendly with Russia. russia was led around by the nose. NATO has not shown itself to be peace-loving towards Russia.
So from my point of view – a clear NO to weapons delivery and to a further nato eastward expansion.
A clear YES to nord stream 2 – trade means peace! I do not begrudge russia its foreign exchange and thus also prosperity!
The history forgetting germans establish an eternal nazi memorial culture, but have completely suppressed their fatal mistakes from the recent past. After the reunification of Romania, Poland, etc., they have been very friendly with Russia., who also had all the regime criminals in their ranks. not even our own SED criminals were really called to account, but essentially left it to conduct mauerschutzenprozesse against the gefreiten with the carbine. But the russian population seemed to be in clan custody for the soviet caste and they were left prostrate on the ground. If we had helped them up and not directly taken poland and the baltic countries into the EU and nato, we would have a strong partner in russia in europe today. Putin would not have found any approval with an anti-Western european policy. If there should be an armed conflict, even a war in europe, germany will not be able to avoid having sown the seeds for it with its arrogant behavior towards the russians. And that was also absehrbar in the 90s: I remember well that (ehem.) GDR citizens gave farewell gifts to the departing russian soldiers at that time. unfortunately the politicians did not have this wisdom. That’s why I can’t see helmut kohl as a great german chancellor either.
I am not a friend of the traffic light!
However, I fully agree with the German approach to the Ukraine conflict so far.
I am particularly pleased that the Greens are also acting in a factual manner here.
I am not surprised that the USA and the British, who are historically known as US vassals, see things differently. The ridiculously acting british with boris johnson at the top still believe to play a role in world politics. They should all charter ocean-going tugboats and dock their island on the east coast of the U.S. There you will find the home you are looking for.
"provincial, narrow-minded, and as if they hadn’t heard the shot". I could not put the situation in which the federal government has strategically and irrationally maneuvered itself over the years into words any better or more pointedly.
The disappointment among our partners is excessive, diplomatic etiquette still keeps many government officials and diplomats from a harsher choice of words. It cannot be that the USA, against the backdrop of the ukraine crisis, has to deal more with germany – theoretically one of its closest allies – than with russia.
Anyone who seriously wants to use the theses launched by russia on the incompatibility of dedicated deterrence with the german culture of remembrance as an argument has no relation to the historical context whatsoever.
Joschka fischer rightly spoke out in 1999 on the occasion of the Kosovo intervention, also under historical-moral aspects of the responsibility for the intervention.
Precisely because of the responsibility to prevent aggression and mass murder, although nazi germany also fought against serbia. The kosovar population was indisputably the victim in danger of extinction, like the ukraine today. Those who refer to the russian campaign should know what suffering from germany insb. Also went out in ukraine, poland and the baltic states. This is completely ignored in this narrative.
In short, if our historical experience should oblige us to do nothing, if the danger of seesaw politics, ambivalence and appeasement shows its dangerous face, germany has learned nothing.
Preparations are now needed for an increase of nato soldiers and equipment in central/eastern europe. Clear and resolute communication regarding. All sanctions at disposal including swift and nord stream II, lethal arms deliveries and financial support to ukraine, as well as joint training missions.
. "What happens in germany seems incredibly provincial to the rest of the world.".
The appearance of our political trainees – especially from the ranks of the Greens – does not only seem provincial, especially on the international parquet, but is highly naive, unrealistic and in the acute difficult situation with russia even highly dangerous. If the self-appointed do-gooders and moralists from brussels and berlin continue to behave as if they were in a green forest kindergarten, the EU will in future no longer even be allowed to take a seat at the side table of international politics. This is how you can do away with yourself in no time at all. In germany we have already made good progress in this respect. Poor germany.
No sooner is trump gone than the Anglo-Saxon hawks are drumming for war again.
Who wins ?? Bets that we will soon buy the overpriced liquid gas of the Americans in Europe??
You can see how the politicians are dragging germany into a senseless war. I as a german have nothing against russia and also nothing against ukrainians. I don’t know a russian or a ukrainian. Here the politicians are the only ones driving the war. I am ashamed for germany and I am afraid ! Maybe the politicians should rather let out their hatred against each other in sandboxes, like small children.
