Australian open tip | what the betting pro is betting on in the nadal tussle
Will he get his 21 in melbourne. Grand slam title? tennis superstar rafael nadal photo: getty images
Now it’s all up for grabs at the australian open!
Betting pro dirk raczkowski (34) from "sports betting no. 7" has turned night into day throughout the tournament in order to watch as many games as possible – and to find the most attractive odds.
A new tip for the semifinals he reveals HERE!
At last year’s US open, raczkowski was right six times in eight bets, with a plus of 3.90 units. If one unit equals 50 euros, then that means a profit of 195 euros. After a bumpy start he played himself into the plus again in the current tournament.
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His analysis of the bet for friday:
Nadal – berrettini
Raczkowski: "for us the match is a bit more open than for the bookmakers, we would have quoted berrettini here only as a slight underdog. In general, we expect a very open and balanced match, where the qualities of both players should shine through.
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Berrettini has now simply an incredible consistency in his game. In 2021, he only ever failed to beat djokovic at the grand slams, and he has beaten every other player. At the french open and US open he lost against the serbian in the quarterfinals, at wimbledon only in the final. However, he was always able to secure a set there, too, there was never a 0-3. In general, it is incredibly difficult to defeat the Italian without losing a set. His serve is just so strong, you can’t have a permanent grip on it. Many serves are unretournable, others you can just about play back into the court, where Berrettini can often finish with his strong forehand. Nadal returns very well, but that was already the case with Berrettini’s last opponents (alcaraz, carreno busta, monfils). Nevertheless, berrettini only conceded a break in five of the 13 sets against these three players, in the other eight sets he kept a clean sheet. In the tournament so far, he has 93 holds on 102 serves, so he has won over 91% of his service games. For this reason alone, we think it is very likely that he will win at least one set despite his supposed role as an outsider.
Dirk raczkowski lives off his income from sports betting and the sale of his tips on the internet photo: photo: michael kreft
For nadal the first four rounds were a walk in the park, he only lost one set against khachanov. Giron and hanfmann couldn’t keep up with his level and mannarino played a very strong first set, which he only lost in a marathon tiebreak, but after that he was simply physically exhausted and couldn’t counter nadal much anymore.
But nadal had unexpected problems against Shapovalov in the quarterfinals after a class difference in the first two sets. Shapovalov came back from 0-2 down to 2-2 and was even favored by the bookies to win the match. This was also due to the fact that nadal was physically at his limit, had to take two medical timeouts and only played better after the pain pills took effect. He won the fifth set mainly because of his experience advantage, against other opponents this could have gone wrong.
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In general, however, nadal has played a very strong tournament so far, which is anything but a matter of course after his lengthy injury layoff. It makes a very balanced impression and reveals hardly any weaknesses. Also his serve, which in the past often gave his opponents a chance to attack, has been very consistent throughout the tournament. He won 78 of his 82 service games during the tournament, which corresponds to an outstanding hold-rate of 95%. But since he also had the much weaker opponents in terms of return than Berrettini, the two are completely on a par in this respect.
Due to the serving strength of both players, it is very likely that at least one set will go over 12 or 13 games. Since we definitely assume at least four sets, we would need only 27 games to cover the line of 38.5 in a 7-5 match, for example. So just an average of nine games in the (at least) three more sets. berrettini’s playing style means that he has never beaten this in his career, at least not against a similarly strong opponent.
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Conclusion: due to his brute serve, his world class forehand and his fighting mentality we trust berrettini to win at least one set. but he should not win 3-0 here – first of all his backhand is too susceptible for that and secondly he has never beaten a top-10 player at a grand slam. If it were to beat nadal 3-0, it would come as a surprise.
Nadal has the more complete game and the big experience advantage. He has the chance to win his 21. to win the grand slam title (and thus distance himself from federer and djokovic for the time being) and will lay down his life on the court to do it. We therefore believe that it, too, can win at least one set of races.
Both players should get their phases here in the course of the match, in which they have the upper hand. That’s why we think we’ll see at least four sets, which should normally be enough for 39+ games for these two players."
recommendation: over 38.5 games for 1.90. The bet wins if it comes to at least 39 games.