New dataforce forecast: this is how the european car market will develop in 2022

New dataforce forecast: this is how the european car market will develop in 2022

the chip crisis will continue to affect the automotive world in 2022.

In 2022, demand will again be significantly higher than supply – which will have a noticeable impact on car dealers and fleets. But there is also reason for optimism.

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Despite uncertainties, dataforce expects rising car sales in the european market in 2022. According to a current forecast by the Frankfurt-based industry observers, around 12.6 million new passenger cars are expected to be registered in europe next year. Compared to 2021, that would be an increase of 8.9 percent. Reasons are a slight increase in vehicle production in the first half of the year and stronger growth in the second half, it said.

According to the experts, the private market will develop somewhat more strongly than new commercial registrations. Although dataforce expects more significant growth in the market for company cars, car rental companies, manufacturers and retailers will probably continue to be supplied only to a limited extent.

"Even if the bottom falls out, vehicle production will remain the bottleneck in 2022."

(benjamin kibies- dataforce senior automotive analyst)

"Even if the market bottoms out, vehicle production will remain the bottleneck in 2022. Demand is significantly greater than supply. Therefore, manufacturers will continue to focus on high-margin sales in 2022", explained dataforce analyst benjamin kibies. Major customers such as car rental companies or large fleet operators would receive fewer discounts, and manufacturers’ and dealers’ own registrations would be further restricted.

Growth in e-cars slows down

Electric vehicles will further expand their market share next year. However, the pace of growth is reported to be slowing down. Kibies: "we expect BEVs, PHEVs and HEVs together to gain only 3.5 percentage points of market share. The improved supply situation for semiconductors allows manufacturers to produce more gasoline and diesel vehicles again." as EV share continues to rise, manufacturers will also have to worry less about their CO2 targets.

At the same time, it is becoming more difficult to attract additional customers. In the premium segment, many buyers already drive electric. For small and compact passenger cars, however, the surcharge for BEVs is still relatively high and ranges are shorter; at the same time, some countries are reducing their EV subsidies.

Julian de groot, head of sales, product and marketing at dataforce, added: "we are going to see a very strange year in 2022, which will probably be influenced by the chip shortage in the first half of the year. Brand market shares could show unusual swings depending on who can secure access to chips and batteries. The EV train will keep moving, but will face obstacles due to lack of infrastructure. (…) one thing we can say is that the kilometers driven per person will remain relatively low in the coming years."

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