Economic situation : economists: inflation risks at a high level
Nuremberg high prices prove to be more persistent than initially expected. Nevertheless, economists believe inflation will return to normal in 2023.
According to economists at leading economic institutions, the risk of persistently higher inflation in germany has risen significantly.
"upside risks have never been at such a high level as they are now," said katharina utermohl of the allianz group in a dpa survey. marc schattenberg of deutsche bank research also believes: "the driving factors have gained in breadth."
Economic expert veronika grimme adds: "We must remain very alert to whether a wage-price spiral is setting in and, if so, take consistent countermeasures in terms of monetary policy." price increases in purchases would be passed on by the manufacturers, sometimes with a time lag. producers have recently had to deal with significant price increases in materials affected by supply shortages, freight costs and energy prices.
Development under observation
However: a structural rise in inflation is not yet in sight, utermohl said. It expects inflation to return to the target of two percent on average next year. the european central bank will keep a close eye on the situation in germany, he said. But it does not see an interest rate step by the central bank before the second half of 2023. Before that, veronika grimm also believes, bond purchases would first have to be scaled back. "we are not in a situation like in the US. There, economic recovery is ahead of europe, with inflation rates even higher," she said, referring to upcoming interest rate hikes by the u.s. federal reserve.
The economy will be further weighed down by the rapid increase in corona numbers in the omicron wave, he said. "the surge in infection figures is likely to put further downward pressure on economic activity in the coming months," said the chief economist of the state-owned banking group k, fritzi kohler-geib. "the pandemic hangs over the economy like a sword of damocles," said katharina utermohl.
Rapid recovery expected in spring
"for the winter half-year, i expect a technical recession with two negative quarterly growth rates," emphasized kohler-geib. Also marc schattenberg said: "we expect a slight technical recession."however, schattenberg expects a rapid recovery in the spring and a strong recovery for 2022 as a whole, with economic output growing by four percent. Katharina utermohl from allianz is a bit more cautious with a growth expectation of three percent.
K chief economist kohler-geib referred in this context to the ongoing shortage of skilled workers in germany. "competition for scarce labor has intensified as a result," she said. "all in all, the signs in the labor market thus far continue to point to recovery." schattenberg expects a sharp rise in the number of unemployed in january, but even a slightly more favorable development on a seasonally adjusted basis. "the labor market is expected to come through the winter robustly. Skilled workers are wanted and also hired," he said.