Study on automated driving: insurers see little potential for relief!

In the future, automated driving functions will probably lead to less damage to vehicles. Nevertheless, compensation payments by vehicle insurers will be only minimally lower by 2040. Cars are becoming safer as assistance systems become more widespread, that’s certainly true. according to a new study by the german insurance association (GDV), this leads to fewer claims and thus to lower compensation payments by insurers. For the next two decades, the authors of the study "automated driving – impact on claims expenditure up to 2040" but only with one moderate decline of the expenses.

According to the study: hardly any relief potential!

Compared with the total of 25 billion euros in 2019, a decrease of just 12 percent predicts. Particularly in the case of liability insurance, compensation could be reduced by 17 percent while for comprehensive insurance – which settles claims on one’s own car – a decrease of only 7 percent expected. Parking and maneuvering assistants, emergency brake assistants, lane departure and lane change assistants, so-called "autobahn pilots" and similar systems for urban and rural roads are examples of assistants that can prevent vehicle damage. The report cites several reasons for the only very moderate decline. For example, the study found that aids such as a highway pilot cannot influence types of damage such as marten bites or rock falls. And the automatic systems prevent damage to vehicles under real-life conditions, such as.B. In bad weather, also fewer claims than in theory. Reason: they simply do not work as reliably as expected.

According to the study: technology spreads only slowly!

In addition, the study assumes that the systems will spread only slowly. Two scenarios were calculated: based on the introduction of ABS system in the 70’s, it is expected that the diffusion will be rather slow: after 20 years, the technology is expected to be installed in about 40% of cars. The slightly faster scenario is based on the introduction of the ESP systems from 1995: according to this scenario, after 20 years the new technology will be installed in around 80 % of cars. As the example of the windshield shows, as technology increases, so does the risk of injury the cost of repair services, 25 % more expensive for cars with assistance systems. Finally, the authors of the study predict that the number of automobiles in germany will continue to rise and reach 46.5 million insured vehicles by 2040.

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